An analysis of the activities of German economic actors in Poland points to a steadily advancing and increasingly complex engagement in the defence sector. According to data from the German Trade and Invest (GTAI) agency, that engagement goes far beyond the framework presented in the official communications of the Polish government. The work of the GTAI office in Warsaw focuses on monitoring the Polish market for investment opportunities for Germany's defence industry, which is currently enjoying an unprecedented boom. A key element of this dynamic is the question of financing arms purchases from the SAFE fund, which is unfolding in the shadow of competence disputes between the government and the president over circumventing the head of state's veto. Strikingly, the German side has remarkably precise data on the timing of advance-payment transfers, displaying a deep familiarity with Polish public finances and frequently ahead of the information available in our own national media circulation.
From an analytical perspective the most significant phenomenon is the strategy of "masking" the presence of German technology in Polish public procurement. Although Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared that the share of German suppliers in projects financed from SAFE funds would be limited to a mere 0.37%, expert analyses point to a much broader scope of this cooperation. The mechanism rests on supplying key components rather than entire weapons systems. This makes it possible to avoid political controversy and accusations from the opposition. German firms such as Airbus are actively bidding for contracts for A4000M transport aircraft and A330 MRTT aerial tankers, but it is precisely inside products labelled "Polish" that Germany's real export potential is concealed.
The practical application of this strategy is visible in concrete projects, in which Polish "packaging" conceals highly advanced German components. The best example is the Polish frigates currently being built, which will be fitted with radio technology from Rohde & Schwarz, propulsion systems from Schottel and solutions from ZF Friedrichshafen AG. A similar dependence applies to combat vehicles, in which engines from the Renk concern and gearboxes from the ZF brand are routinely installed. Such a model of cooperation enables German manufacturers to expand very effectively in politically less sensitive areas. It is interpreted as a method — worked out in conjunction with the Polish side — for bypassing social and political resistance to direct purchases of equipment from the western neighbour.
Polish–German defence cooperation is clearly evolving towards a component-based model. German technology is becoming an integrated, yet entirely discreet, part of Polish defence systems. The government's official declarations about a marginal German capital share in the modernisation of the Polish armed forces serve above all for image-building purposes and as day-to-day political cover against accusations of favouring foreign industry. In reality, however, it is Western know-how and the key mechanical and electronic components that form the foundation of many of the strategic projects being carried out by Warsaw — something explicitly confirmed by the analytical reports prepared for German investors.
