The German frigate "Sachsen", serving as the flagship of NATO's Standing Maritime Group 1 (SNMG1), together with Bundespolizei units and allied forces, approached the Russian vessel. Expert Moritz Brake of the Center for Maritime Security Studies at the University of Bonn sees this as a Russian show of force and an attempt to intimidate those who would seek to constrain Russia.
We must abandon peace negotiations, says Brake.
The Russian shadow fleet, estimated at 600 to 1600 vessels, mostly old, low-quality tankers, primarily serves the export of oil, which generates more than ten billion euros per month. Almost half of these ships sail through the Baltic. They operate under various flags of states with weak oversight mechanisms, with falsified ownership structures and insurance. In this way, the Kremlin finances the war against Ukraine while testing the limits of Western resolve. The appearance of the "Severomorsk" off the coast of the island of Fehmarn is a direct response to attempts to inspect and possibly detain these vessels.
The shadow fleet has long since ceased to be a purely economic problem and has become an instrument of destabilization below the threshold of open conflict. The damage to the Estlink 2 submarine cable during Christmas 2024 by the tanker "Eagle S" – which dragged its anchor along the seabed, damaging several cables at once – was no accident, according to German experts. NATO responded with the "Baltic Sentry" mission, increasing its military presence to protect critical underwater infrastructure. Despite this, Moscow continues to operate by jamming GNSS signals (Global Navigation Satellite System – a collective term for all global satellite navigation systems – ed.), AIS spoofing (the deliberate falsification of signals in the maritime Automatic Identification System (AIS), which is used to automatically identify ships and track their positions – ed.), and placing on board people linked to the Russian military or mercenary groups.
The Baltic is particularly vulnerable to ecological disasters. The old, often unseaworthy tankers of the shadow fleet are a ticking bomb. Essentially, one serious accident or breakdown would be enough to destroy the ecosystem, economy and tourism of the German coast for years. Expert Moritz Brake emphasizes that such maneuvers are a deliberate strategy of escalation. Russia exploits the weakness of the Western response – endless debates, jurisdictional disputes and self-restraint out of fear of an ecological disaster or military escalation.
Russia does not let up in testing the limits and effectiveness of Western forces. Every concession, every inconsistency reinforces its conviction that it can combine trade with sabotage with impunity. Only a consistent, coordinated policy at the intersection of sanctions, maritime security, environmental protection and defense will make it possible to limit the flow of money to the Russian war machine and restore stability in a body of water that, for our part of Europe, is simultaneously a trade artery and a front line of hybrid warfare.
